价格跌1.9%至7.45万美元，属于这枚币自身波动范围内的正常波动（处于过去30天波动幅度的73百分位），延续了过去一周的跌势，目前价格只处在过去30天区间的6%位置（非常靠近低点）。ETF（机构买比特币的资金渠道）继续净流出（-4.12亿美元，14天累计-17.1亿美元），MSTR（微策略公司）的优先股压力依然很大（股价低于比特币资产净值，隐含收益率14.2%），这个供应过剩风险已经连续两周没有缓解。但恐慌贪婪指数只有29（偏恐慌）、交易所余额还在持续减少（说明有人在囤币），这限制了进一步下跌的空间，所以判断保持谨慎偏空但信心没有提高。
Price fell 1.9% to $74,467, a normal-magnitude move (73rd percentile) that extends the 7d downtrend, with BTC now sitting at just 6% of its 30-day range. ETF outflows continue (-$412M, 14d cumulative -$1.71B) and MSTR's preferred shares remain distressed (mNAV 0.86x, implied yield 14.2%), keeping the supply-overhang risk flagged for a second straight week unresolved. Fear & Greed at 29 and exchange balances still shrinking (accumulation) cap further downside, so confidence stays moderate and the stance holds rather than deepens.