ETH今天大跌5.5%，这是它自己最近30天里少见的大波动；同时未平仓合约（OI，衡量杠杆仓位规模的指标）也萎缩了4.5%，说明这更像是杠杆多头被强制平仓，而不是新的抛售力量涌入。ETH的ETF（机构买币渠道）过去14天净流出已经扩大到9.14亿美元，过去7天有6天在流出，同时ETH兑BTC的比价处于近30天的最低位，说明资金持续从ETH转向BTC的情况还在继续。恐慌与贪婪指数29分本该带来一些乐观理由，但ETH自身价格大跌加上ETF持续净流出，还不足以把判断拉出谨慎偏空的区间。
ETH dropped 5.5% on a large-for-this-coin move, with open interest shrinking 4.5% alongside the price fall — a long_unwind pattern showing leveraged longs getting forced out, not fresh selling pressure. ETF outflows have deepened to -$914M over 14 days with 6 of the last 7 days negative, and ETH/BTC sits at the 0th percentile of its 30-day range, confirming the rotation-out-of-ETH story continues. Fear & Greed at 29 would normally trigger a contrarian floor, but ETH's own price collapse and the ETF deficit mean the floor doesn't lift this out of cautious bearish territory yet.